Trump's Oil Price Prediction Sparks Intense Debate

President Donald Trump this week said oil prices would fall "right after" November's midterm elections, offering up his prediction on the same day global crude prices topped $100 a barrel.

Oil prices surged in the spring after the Iran war set off the largest oil supply shock ever recorded. The disruption catapulted United States gasoline prices above $4 a gallon and helped rekindle price increases for other everyday items, such as groceries.

Global oil prices stood above $104 a barrel on Friday, marking a rise of nearly 50% since the outbreak of the war in late February. The average price of a gallon of gas registered at $4.29 on Friday, AAA data showed.

Since the war began about six months ago, Trump has issued a variety of explanations and forecasts about fuel costs.

Here's a timeline of Trump's public comments about energy prices this year:

Feb. 27

At an event in Corpus Christi, Texas, Trump voiced his commitment to "slashing energy costs" as a means of bringing down consumer prices. When you cut energy costs, Trump said, "you just cut the cost of everything."

The price of a gallon of gas stood at $2.98, according to AAA, while global oil prices closed at about $72.50.

Feb. 28

The U.S. and Israel began a large-scale attack on Iran, prompting Iran's near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Unrest in the maritime trading route, which facilitates the transport of one-fifth of global oil supply, triggered a historic global oil shock.

March 3

Speaking in the Oval Office, Trump said oil prices will be "a little high" for "a little while."

March 8

In a social media post, Trump predicted a short-term bout of elevated oil prices, calling it a "small price to pay" for "Safety and Peace."

March 12

Global oil prices exceeded $100 for the first time since 2022.

March 19

Trump downplayed economic fallout from the Iran war, saying the damage had fallen short of his expectations prior to the attack on Iran.

"I said, 'You know, if I do that, oil prices will go up and the economy will go down a little bit,'" Trump recounted. "I thought it would be worse, much worse."

"It's not bad and it's going to be over with pretty soon," Trump said.

March 31

The average price of a gallon of gas in the U.S. topped $4 for the first time in four years, according to AAA. On the same day, global oil prices hit a peak of nearly $120 a barrel.

April 1

In a television address, Trump claimed the U.S. does not import oil that travels through the Strait of Hormuz, urging allies to "take the lead" in reopening the trading route.

May 12

Trump told reporters Americans' financial situation was "not even a little bit" of a motivating factor in efforts to strike a deal to end the war in Iran.

"The only thing that matters when I'm talking about Iran, they can't have a nuclear weapon," Trump said. "I don't think about Americans' financial situation. I don't think about anybody. I think about one thing: we cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That's all."

May 21

Gas prices climbed to an average of $4.56 a gallon, AAA data showed.

June 9

U.S. gasoline prices are "not very high, relatively speaking," Trump told reporters.

At the time, the average price of a gallon of gas stood at $4.16, having fallen $0.37 from the previous month, AAA data showed. Still, the price marked a nearly 40% rise since the start of the war.

June 10

A government report showed annual inflation of 4.2% in May, amounting to the highest inflation rate in three years. The acceleration in price increases owed in large part to a jump in energy costs.

Speaking in the Oval Office, Trump dismissed price concerns raised by the data, saying, "No, I love it. The numbers were great."

"You know what I really love? I love the inflation," Trump added, saying prices would fall after the resolution of the Iran war.

June 18

The average price of a gallon of gas fell below $4 a gallon, just a day after the U.S. and Iran formally signed a memorandum of understanding setting up a 60-day deadline for a peace deal.

June 26

Global oil prices closed at about $71.40 a barrel, the lowest level since before the Iran war.

June 29

In a social media post, Trump called on gasoline retailers to lower their prices. "DROP YOUR PRICE FOR OUR GREAT AMERICAN PEOPLE!" Trump said.

Aug. 3

Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, Trump criticized oil companies Chevron and Exxon for profits earned during the Iran war.

"They made too much money, too much money. Chevron, too much money. Exxon Mobil, too much," Trump said

At the time, Exxon and Chevron both declined to respond to ABC News' request for comment about Trump's remarks.

Aug. 17

Trump contradicted Vice President JD Vance days after the vice president said that the administration's top priority amid the Iran war was to keep the price of oil and gas down for Americans.

In a social media post, Trump said that the "number one Goal is, and always will be" that Iran can't have a nuclear weapon.

On the same day, the memorandum of understanding expired without the U.S. and Iran reaching a peace agreement.

Sept. 7

In a social media post, Trump said oil prices "will drop precipitously" after the Iran war is won.

Sept. 9

Global oil prices exceeded $100 a gallon for the first time since July. The average price of a gallon of gas stood at $4.22 a gallon, according to AAA.

Speaking to reporters, Trump said oil prices would fall soon after the U.S. midterm elections.

Iran, Trump said, is "desperate to try and affect the election, so that we can get a nice weak group of people in there, and leave them alone and let them have their nuclear weapon."

ABC News' Nicholas Kerr, Karen Travers, Emily Chang and Fritz Farrow contributed to this report.